On the Naughty Step

Today’s Opec Monthly Oil Market Report indicates an impressive over-compliance with pledged cuts. The compilation of secondary source assessments of February production puts it at 31.96mn b/d, down by 140,000 b/d on January, and well below the target 32.68mn b/d. That’s a cut of 2.13mn b/d, compared with a planned cut of 1.17mn b/d.

One swallow doesn’t make a summer – but a self-administered pat on the back would be excusable.

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Won’t get fooled again?

It’s not even been four years.

In April 2013, then Saudi oil minister Ali Naimi said there was nothing to fear from shale oil production in the US. A few days later, Naimi adviser Ibrahim al-Muhanna told Gulf Co-operation Council oil ministers that any concerns they had that shale oil would lead to a huge increase in supply and a collapse in prices were “misplaced”.

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