Congruence in the Mideast Gulf?

The big beasts are tantalising market watchers ahead of an informal gathering of producer countries on the fringes of the International Energy Forum on 24-26 September. Even as the political rhetoric from regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran bubbles up again with the approach of the Hajj pilgrimage, the mood music promises a more harmonious discussion among Opec members than any since the 2014 price collapse.

But more interesting than a possible short-run convergence of Saudi and Iranian oil policy is a message given out by Iran on its long-term perspective.

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London-listed oil shares shrug off EU vote

The index of London-listed oil and gas producer share prices hit a more than one year high this morning. Of course, an index that embraces everything from the most tiddlerish of minnows through to the blue whales of BP and Shell contains many fallers as well as risers. But as an Argus blog noted on the day of the UK EU referendum result, the kneejerk sell-off of BP and Shell shares that morning was just a blip on a 12-month graph of prices, as was the down dip in crude prices.

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It’s up to you to heed the call on Opec

The standout figure in this week’s IEA Oil Market Report is its forecast for the 2017 call on Opec crude — 33.5mn b/d, a meaty 1mn b/d up on the forecast for this year.

The IEA’s forecast increase for 2016 over 2015 is bigger still, and follows a modest rise even for the producers’ nightmare year 2015 over 2014.

Argus is not yet forecasting beyond the end of this year, but concurs with the IEA that the call this year will be well over 2mn b/d more than last year’s. For good measure, that is what Opec says too.

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