It’s up to you to heed the call on Opec

The standout figure in this week’s IEA Oil Market Report is its forecast for the 2017 call on Opec crude — 33.5mn b/d, a meaty 1mn b/d up on the forecast for this year.

The IEA’s forecast increase for 2016 over 2015 is bigger still, and follows a modest rise even for the producers’ nightmare year 2015 over 2014.

Argus is not yet forecasting beyond the end of this year, but concurs with the IEA that the call this year will be well over 2mn b/d more than last year’s. For good measure, that is what Opec says too.

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Escape hatch

The conclusion from the Doha debacle on 17 April was that Riyadh has reversed two decades of separation of oil and politics. It blocked a production freeze agreement of 18 countries because its new rulers would rather do that than accept a rebuilding of Iranian output.

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