Cold chaos highlights gas supply tightness

This blog will focus on topics to be covered in the upcoming Argus European Natural Gas webinar for the first quarter of 2018. Invitations to the webinar will be sent to subscribers soon.

The rapid rise in UK NBP and Dutch TTF natural gas prompt prices during the cold snap has grabbed headlines. But the lack of supply flexibility this week has taken all winter to create.

The Dutch system operator bought balancing gas for €545/MWh, while NBP within-day prices hit £1.94p/th, up from yesterday’s day-ahead market close of 91.15p/th.

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Northwest Europe holds stocks back

European near-curve prices rallied in November despite early indications that there will be more gas left in storage at the end of the winter than in most recent years.

Cold weather in November, and forecasts for it to extend into December, supported TTF contracts for delivery over the remainder of the winter. And the firmer gas prices are especially evident when comparing gas with coal — its main competition — as the TTF day-ahead market has climbed to levels that would make even the highest efficiency plants uncompetitive.

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