This is the second in a series of blogs using data from Argus Data and Downloads, which are available to Argus Direct subscribers here.
Yesterday’s blog analysed the recent increase in Russian producer Gazprom’s exports to Europe, despite weaker prices. But it is not only Gazprom that has an unorthodox supply curve — you and I do too.
There are some similarities to the backward bending labour supply curve. People at first try to work more as wages go up, but once income reaches a certain level they will start cutting hours to free up leisure time.
This is the first of a series of blogs using data from Argus Data and Downloads, which are available to Argus Direct subscribers here.
Two stories at the start of July pointed to a large increase in Europe’s gas supply this summer and talk of a “price war”.
European LNG sendout in the second quarter rose to the highest in several years, while Russian exporter Gazprom’s sales in April-June were a record for the second quarter.
Well, it’s been a bit hectic on the LNG desk this past week. And that’s the question we’ve been asked the most.
Along with: “Can Qatari LNG tankers use the Suez Canal?”, “How is it impacting the LNG market?”, and “What else do I need to know?”
And my personal favourite: “Can you explain the situation to me in less than 10 seconds?”
Well, I’ll try. But it is fair to say that we don’t have all the answers. And it will definitely take longer than 10 seconds.
Developments at France’s smaller TRS gas hub this winter have provided some good parallels with the UK’s NBP, one of Europe’s most liquid markets.
The TRS was — in my view — Europe’s most exciting market, with prices responding well to the fundamental drivers of supply and demand. It also delivered some interesting examples of how European hub pricing might operate as global LNG supply increases, along with the potential for more volatility in prompt prices.
If Shell were a knight, the Dragon natural gas field offshore Venezuela might be a quivering beast, Trinidad and Tobago the damsel in distress. But the setting for this medieval tale isn’t anywhere near Avalon. It’s Caracas, and there rules a capricious monarch on a three-legged throne.