Is complacency priced in?

There is a very strong possibility that tomorrow the basket price of Opec crude will start with a six for the first time since late June 2015. Ice Brent front-month futures have been sixed-up for a few days now.

Quite the fillip ahead of the group’s meeting at the end of this month, when the key – perhaps the only – point of discussion will be how to keep a good thing going.

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November’s Vienna meet may be Opec, non-Opec lite

The November Opec and non-Opec gathering in Vienna looks set for a downgrade.

After the compliance meeting on 22 September, Russian oil minister Alexander Novak said the likely state of the market in April wouldnot be discernible until early 2018. Yesterday, he was explicit: “We need to take a decision in the first quarter of 2018. In November we will certainly discuss the market situation and prospects, but it makes no sense to take a decision.”

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The orphans of Odebrecht

The first night in jail was probably not too uncomfortable for Ecuador’s once-powerful vice president Jorge Glas. But this wasn´t where he was supposed to end up after president Lenin Moreno moved into Carondelet palace in May. Like Moreno himself, the impact of the region-wide Odebrecht corruption scandal that landed Glas behind bars was underestimated from the start.

An Ecuadorean court yesterday granted a request by the attorney general’s office to detain Glas for alleged bribery and conspiracy, accusations that have already tainted senior politicians from Brasilia to Bogotá after the contractor signed a 2016 international plea deal over its elaborate bribery scheme. The region´s new heroes are state prosecutors like Brazil´s Rodrigo Janot, Ecuador´s Diana Salazar and Venezuela´s Luisa Ortega.

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