“One man’s loss is another man’s gain,” states the aphorism.
There is a very strong possibility that tomorrow the basket price of Opec crude will start with a six for the first time since late June 2015. Ice Brent front-month futures have been sixed-up for a few days now.
Quite the fillip ahead of the group’s meeting at the end of this month, when the key – perhaps the only – point of discussion will be how to keep a good thing going.
The narrative surrounding market rebalancing moves faster than the actual process of market rebalancing.
Last week in Moscow Russian president Vladimir Putin posited that, should an agreement be reached to extend the Opec, non-Opec deal on production levels, then it should run until the end of 2018.
An increase in the seasonality of LNG demand in northeast Asia has raised the value of using European terminals as storage for winter reloads.
The November Opec and non-Opec gathering in Vienna looks set for a downgrade.
After the compliance meeting on 22 September, Russian oil minister Alexander Novak said the likely state of the market in April wouldnot be discernible until early 2018. Yesterday, he was explicit: “We need to take a decision in the first quarter of 2018. In November we will certainly discuss the market situation and prospects, but it makes no sense to take a decision.”